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2026
- Salvage Fuzing and Orbital Nuclear Weapons Why destroying a possible Russian co-orbital nuclear anti-satellite weapon probably isn’t a good idea.
- Self-Sovereign AI and Catalytic Nuclear War: A Plausible Near-Term Problem (Humor me for a second.)
- India-Pakistan May 2025 Redux: More on the Mystery at Kirana Hills Thinking through new information about the May 2025 India-Pakistan clash.
- Independence Day Special: Nuclear Weapons and American Power On the role of nuclear weapons in underwriting American national power.
- Missiles Over the Indian Ocean: 7 Observations on Iran's March 20 Attempt on Diego Garcia What the longest-range use of ballistic missiles in combat to date tells us. And what it doesn't.
- Japan’s Counterstrike Planning and Lessons From the Third Gulf War What are planners in Tokyo taking away from the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran? What are the limits of comparisons?
- North Korea's Move Toward Space Weapons Pyongyang sets its sights on anti-satellite capabilities.
- A Glimpse at China's Naval Nuclear Future We have a "JL-4" designation out in public. And more on China's all-nuclear navy.
- 'Dissuasion Avancée': Macron Drags France Into the New Nuclear Age Macron's March 2026 speech on deterrence and changes to French posture.
- Making Sense of Iran's Deterrence Failures An early appraisal of the missteps that got Iran to this point.
- North Korean Missile Precision Improvements and the Russo-Ukrainian War A quick point on improvements in the Hwasong-11A (and other North Korean missiles).
- Does the AI/Nuclear Weapons Analogy Really Make Sense? If so, where does it? What are the limitations?
- Thinking About Compute and Armageddon A hidden assumption underlies every optimistic AI forecast. It’s geopolitical, and it’s enormous.
- China, U.S. Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons Testing Parsing out a new, specific U.S. claim.
- A Note On the 2026 US National Defense Strategy and Extended Deterrence What does the NDS have to say about nuclear weapons and the nuclear environment facing the United States? Turns out, not much.
2025
- Did the United States Just Commit to Defending Qatar? Extended deterrence continues to be a hot topic in 2025.
- Did Pakistan Just Extend Nuclear Deterrence to Saudi Arabia? Thoughts on an unexpected breakthrough.
- Iran's Nuclear Options After Operation Midnight Hammer The U.S. hit sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. Now what?
- No One's Going to Use a Nuclear Weapon Against Fordow Thoughts on nuclear solutions to nuclear problems.
- The President Should Not Be Posting Thoughts on crisis stability and U.S. posture towards Iran.
- Ruminating on Operation Rising Lion A few thoughts on the Israel-Iran war.
- American Unreliability, Extended Deterrence, and More And a bit on the UK's new Strategic Defence Review.
- Ukraine’s Deep Strikes on Russian Bombers (And More) Strategic surprise probably undersells this.
