Research
Citation metrics
- Citations
- 3,4721,577 since 2021
- h-index
- 2114 since 2021
- i10-index
- 8536 since 2021
Source: Google Scholar · as of Sep 25, 2026
A running list of what I’m working on and thinking about. It changes as projects finish and new questions come up.
Current interests
- Limited nuclear war. I am currently thinking deeply about the factors that contribute to the plausible escalation or deescalation of great power nuclear conflicts. I am particularly deep on U.S. thinking on limited nuclear conflict, the role of various contemporary emerging technologies in contribution to escalation and deescalation within a limited nuclear conflict, and the logics that may drive states to deliberately escalate within a nuclear war.
- Missile defense. I am working on a counter-proposal to Golden Dome that seeks to promote a more cost-effective, restrained, and strategic-stability-compliant approach focused on preferential point defense.
- Extended deterrence and the future of U.S. alliances. I have been traveling to Europe, East Asia, and Australia in recent years to track how various U.S. allies are reacting to the unpredictability emanating from Washington. My research work in these are concerns the nonproliferation consequences of alliance discord and the implications of growing allied autonomy on crisis escalation.
- Emerging technology and strategic stability. What artificial intelligence, autonomy, and new sensing and missile capabilities mean for command and control, early warning, and crisis decision-making. I am deeply involved in a working group on NC3 and AI at the moment.
- Strategic force analysis. I continue to look closely at developments in the strategic nuclear forces of various nuclear states. I focus particularly on the United States, China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan.
Open questions
- I am thinking quite a bit these days about the broader disruptive social, economic, and geopolitical effects of transformative artificial intelligence systems. Most of my writing on this topic has appeared in short form on my newsletter, but I am in the process of initiating major research projects looking at AI.
Research and co-authorship
I’m happy to hear from researchers working on nuclear strategy, escalation, missile defense, or the security and geopolitical implications of AI. Short pitches with a clear question work best.
For Students
While I can’t take on regular mentoring, I do try to answer specific questions from students and early-career researchers. Visit the contact page.
Research Publications
- What To Learn—And Not Learn—From the Nuclear Age: A Framework for Twenty-first Century AI Thinkers Pre-read essay in the FAS/Future of Life Institute report Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Risks
- Pursuing Stable Coexistence: A Reorientation of U.S. Policy Toward North Korea
- Limited Leverage: Nuclear Latency in South Korea's Alliance Bargaining Vol. 47, No. 1 (2024): 147-166
- How Much Is Enough? Revisiting Nuclear Reliability, Deterrence, and Preventive War Cornell University Press, eds. Vipin Narang and Scott D. Sagan; chapter 5, pp. 123-153
- China International Institute for Strategic Studies, eds. Douglas Barrie and Timothy Wright
- North Korea's missile activity in 2022 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 28
- China's 2021 orbital-weapon tests International Institute for Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 3
- A Call to Arms: Kim Jong Un and the Tactical Bomb Vol. 44, No. 3 (2021): 7-24
- North Korea and the Proof of Nuclear Adherence
- Lessons From the Iran Deal for Nuclear Negotiations With North Korea Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; volume co-edited with Toby Dalton, Thomas MacDonald, and Megan DuBois
- Reducing Risks to Space Systems: Recommendations for the UN Secretary-General Submission to the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs regarding UNGA Resolution 75/36
- The Biden Administration, New Technologies, and Disarmament Vol. 6
- Multipolarity, Great Power Competition, and Nuclear Risk Reduction United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, ed. Wilfred Wan
- Emerging Technologies and the Future of Proliferation: Knocking Nuclear Weapons 'Off the Pedestal' Nuclear Boundaries Initiative, Institute for International Science and Technology Policy, George Washington University; ed. Sharon Squassoni, pp. 142-151
- The Conflict in Afghanistan: Interlocking Strategic Challenges as a Barrier to a Regional Solution Sage, Vol. 1, ed. Takashi Inoguchi
- North Korea: Risks of Escalation Vol. 62, No. 1 (2020): 47-54
- Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Divergent Perspectives Paper prepared for the 20th World Korea Forum
- Goals for Any Arms Control Proposal With North Korea
- Pakistan's Approach to Navigating the Saudi-Iranian Split Special Report No. 439
- The North Korean Challenge: East and Southeast Asian Reactions International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Japan's Grand Strategy in the South China Sea: Principled Pragmatism U.S. Naval Institute Press, ed. Anders Corr
- Safer at Sea? Pakistan's Sea-Based Deterrent and Nuclear Weapons Security Vol. 40, No. 3 (2017): 149-168
- Asia-Pacific Policy Challenges for the Trump Administration International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Japan's Expanding Security Role International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Indian and Chinese foreign policy imperatives and strategies vis-a-vis Afghanistan Vol. 15, No. 4 (2016): 379-406
- Pledges and Pious Wishes: The Constituent Assembly Debates and the Myth of a 'Nehruvian Consensus' Vol. 14, No. 2 (2015): 203-220
Journalism, essays, and commentary are on the writing page.