Research

A running list of what I’m working on and thinking about. It changes as projects finish and new questions come up.

Current interests

• Limited nuclear war. I am currently thinking deeply about the factors that contribute to the plausible escalation or deescalation of great power nuclear conflicts. I am particularly deep on U.S. thinking on limited nuclear conflict, the role of various contemporary emerging technologies in contribution to escalation and deescalation within a limited nuclear conflict, and the logics that may drive states to deliberately escalate within a nuclear war.
• Missile defense. I am working on a counter-proposal to Golden Dome that seeks to promote a more cost-effective, restrained, and strategic-stability-compliant approach focused on preferential point defense.
• Extended deterrence and the future of U.S. alliances. I have been traveling to Europe, East Asia, and Australia in recent years to track how various U.S. allies are reacting to the unpredictability emanating from Washington. My research work in these are concerns the nonproliferation consequences of alliance discord and the implications of growing allied autonomy on crisis escalation.
• Emerging technology and strategic stability. What artificial intelligence, autonomy, and new sensing and missile capabilities mean for command and control, early warning, and crisis decision-making. I am deeply involved in a working group on NC3 and AI at the moment.
• Strategic force analysis. I continue to look closely at developments in the strategic nuclear forces of various nuclear states. I focus particularly on the United States, China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan.

Open questions

• I am thinking quite a bit these days about the broader disruptive social, economic, and geopolitical effects of transformative artificial intelligence systems. Most of my writing on this topic has appeared in short form on my newsletter, but I am in the process of initiating major research projects looking at AI.

Research and co-authorship

I’m happy to hear from researchers working on nuclear strategy, escalation, missile defense, or the security and geopolitical implications of AI. Short pitches with a clear question work best.

For Students

While I can’t take on regular mentoring, I do try to answer specific questions from students and early-career researchers. Visit the contact page.